And Then? What Happens After Victory Over Daesh

Since 2014 and their declaration of the Caliphate, this thing called ISIS has been dominating the news cycle. From destruction of antiquities to the massacre of civilians, ISIS has been losing friends and influencing people in negative ways for quite some time. But even as politicians call for carpet bombing of this non-state pretender-state actor, Daesh is losing momentum. In fact, one could even say we might see the end of the Daeshbags within the next year and a half. They are losing ground rapidly in Iraq and are seeing significant losses in Syria, as their ability to draw fighters to their cause dwindles. Their supply lines shrink, their leadership falls victim to drone strikes, and their fighters are dying. A lot.

So much for the good news.

Because guess what? We once had the Taliban on the run and forced Al Qaeda into hiding.

Turns out, we’re good at breaking things. But as Iraq and Afghanistan have taught us, the transition from breaking things to putting things back together (that’s infantry-speak) is fairly tricky. So tricky that our peace has been historically more difficult than war. And this current conflict’s resolution will be even worse, as the various factions make Game of Thrones look like Sesame Street.

This post is not meant to offer any solution, as had I solved that problem I would be making millions as a peace contractor. It is meant instead to offer a brief warning. We might be winning whatever it is that we call our actions against Daesh, but beware victory: it will bring a bigger problem than the current one.

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